FNUS72 KJAX 172209
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASBURY...FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1657 EST ON JANUARY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR LATE
WEEK WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH.

TWO HOURLY SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES IN THE EARLY WEDNESDAY
ARE GIVEN BELOW. ESTIMATED VALUES AROUND THE 3 AM TO 8 AM TIME
FRAME ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 6 TO 10...WITH MINIMUM VALUE AROUND 5
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13
                    MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........45     50     56     64     70     76
WEATHER COV.....                                   S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TEMP............68     62     59     57     55     54
RH..............59     72     79     81     84     89
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 3   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       5
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1300   1100   800    800    900
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14   W 12   W 7    SW 3   SW 5   SW 10
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION INDX.33     20     9      2      3      7
CHC OF PCPN (%).5      5      10     10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-2800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 16 TO 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....38.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40-50 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........83     85     84     82     81     80
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............53     53     61     68     71     71
RH..............94     100    87     67     58     56
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   W 10   W 10   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.              10            20     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   1400   2000   2600   2800   2300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16  SW 20  SW 20  SW 20  W 18   W 18
DISPERSION INDX.11     13     26     44     42     38
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     40     40     50     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...LT JUSTIN ASBURY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120117.ASBUR.01/JAX