FNUS73 KDVN 181641
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOP PILES...PORT LOUISA NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE
WEST...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY...
THEN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........20 AT IGNITION...MAX 26.
RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 63 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT RISING TO AROUND 1200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TIME (CST)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............20     24     26
RH..............72     64     63
EYE LEVEL WIND..190/10 180/14 180/15
EYE LEVEL GUST..14     16     18
HAINES INDEX....3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 11.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST.
WIND SHIFT..........WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
                    MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 13 TO 20 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 14.
RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 10 TO 18 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SHEETS
REQUESTED BY...ERIK ACKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120118.SHOPP.01/DVN