FNUS75 KGJT 171746
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPIN PILE RX...NPS _ MESA VERDE NP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MST TUE JAN 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0955 MST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. STRONG WARMING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BUT TRANSPORT WINDS ALSO
WEAKEN.


.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE...SLOPE-VALLEY
                    WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR (46950 KT-FT)
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH AT 1100...THEN INCREASING TO 18 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%)
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE...
                    SLOPE-VALLEY WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    5 MPH AFTER 2400.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR (41740 KT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO
                    3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH AT 1100 THEN ICNREASING T0 16 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...JOANIE LAWRENCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120118.CHAPI.01/GJT