FNUS71 KAKQ 191504 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR BACK GARDEN CREEK...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1004 AM EST THU JAN 19 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BURN SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRINGS THICKENING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....31 TO 34 AT IGNITION TIME. HIGH 41 TO 43. MIN HUMIDITY........49 TO 53 PERCENT AT IGNITION TIME. 31 TO 36 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........VARIABLE AROUND 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2000-2900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR TO POOR (1800-39300 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............11 17 22 28 33 42 51 61 70 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................27 31 34 37 40 43 43 43 42 RH..................63 56 51 46 42 33 35 38 43 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.0 20 FT WIND DIR......E E SE S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......3 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE S S SW SW SW SW S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....6 5 6 8 10 13 14 15 14 VRATE KT-FT/1000....6 6 10 17 27 32 35 37 24 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....32 TO 35. MAX HUMIDITY........69 TO 74 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......15 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 22 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (2800-12400 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............79 88 69 71 74 76 78 80 75 69 64 59 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................40 39 39 40 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 36 RH..................48 54 57 55 57 57 59 62 62 64 67 69 CHC OF PCPN (%)..... 0 0 0 0 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S SW SW SW SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S S SW SW SW SW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 13 16 20 22 22 20 17 16 15 14 13 VRATE KT-FT/1000....12 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....39 TO 42. MIN HUMIDITY........52 TO 57 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......15 PERCENT EARLY MORNING...THEN 0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 16 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (2500-17900 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............53 48 46 44 42 39 37 35 39 43 48 52 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................36 36 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 40 40 38 RH..................69 72 67 62 59 57 55 55 52 55 52 57 CHC OF PCPN (%).....15 15 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 12 14 15 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 3 6 9 13 16 18 18 15 13 11 7 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECASTER...DEROSA REQUESTED BY...ART CANTERBURY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120119.BACKG.01/AKQ