FNUS74 KHGX 191347
FWSHGX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST SHELL LAKES...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. AREAS OF SEA
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE SEA FOG COULD
PLAGUE THE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE AS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPS AROUND 3000 FEET.

COMMENTS:
A TEMPERATURE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS
BE FAIRLY ROBUST...BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND RH VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH TODAY AND VERY
HIGH OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL GET MIXED
TO THE SURFACE SO FEEL THIS MORNINGS FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL
BURN OFF BY 10 AM. THIS IS RADIATIONAL FOG NOT SEA FOG. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. YOUR BURN
LOCATION IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SHELF WATERS ARE A BIT WARMER OFF OF
MATAGORDA COUNTY SO NOT SURE IF THE FOG THREAT WILL BE AS HIGH AS POINTS
TO THE NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
BUT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...FEEL THE TRAJECTORY OF SEA
FOG MOVING INLAND  IS UNFAVORABLE.

HYSPLIT MODEL WILL BE SENT SHORTLY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME
WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST HOUSTON. WILL RUN THE MODEL AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT PARAMETERS AND SEND THAT AS WELL.


.TODAY...
TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............57     63     66     68     66
RH..............100    93     87     84     90
20FT WIND DIR...S      S      S      SW     S
20FT WIND (MPH).7      8      10     13     10
20FT WIND GUST..       10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1600   2100   2400   2600   2500
MIX HGT (M).....490    640    730    790    760
TRANS WIND DIR..190    200    200    200    200
TRANS SPD (KTS).12     13     14     15     15
TRANS SPD (M/S).6      7      7      8      8

$$
FORECASTER...ROESELER
REQUESTED BY...RAY GUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120119.EASTS.02/HGX