FNUS75 KGJT 191653
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPIN PILE RX...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 AM MST THU JAN 19 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MST ON JANUARY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN ON SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND APPROACH WESTERN COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON...THEN FAIR...INCREASING TO
                    GOOD FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 1500 MST.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 0-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 5000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED RAIN...OR
                    MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTH WINDS 4-8 MPH. AT TIMES DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH MAY
                    MIX TO THE SURFACE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 24 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...KEITH KRAUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120120.CHAPI.01/GJT