FNUS72 KILM 231406 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR COW ISLAND...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 906 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON JANUARY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY STRONG INVERSION UNDER 1000FT THROUGH 1 PM OR SO. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE THROUGH MIDDAY. PROFILE TYPE 1-B...WITH A SPEED MAX AT 1700 FT AGL FROM THE SOUTH AT UP TO 35 MPH. THE PROFILE WILL BECOME FAVORABLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64 (LATE). MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......400 THROUGH 1PM THEN LIFTING TO 2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO 26 MPH. MAX ADI.............54. MAX LVORI...........10. TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............100 96 91 89 86 85 81 WEATHER COV......... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................53 58 62 64 64 64 63 RH..................87 83 81 79 79 79 82 20 FT WIND DIR......E SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......4 5 6 7 7 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............5 4 3 3 3 3 3 ADI.................6 14 21 34 45 54 42 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 23 MPH. MAX ADI.............27. MAX LVORI...........5. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............73 69 67 82 89 93 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................61 61 61 61 61 60 RH..................87 87 88 90 90 89 20 FT WIND..........S 7 S 7 S 7 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 10 LVORI...............4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI.................27 23 25 21 20 18 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX ADI.............33. MAX LVORI...........5. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............95 93 85 75 68 55 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................59 61 63 67 68 67 RH..................92 84 75 64 59 57 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 W 4 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............5 4 4 2 2 1 ADI.................11 8 5 16 27 33 $$ FORECASTER...BACON REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120123.COWIS.01/ILM