FNUS73 KPAH 231343 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAB ORCHARD CAMPGROUND PILES...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 743 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ISSUE AT IGNITION TIME WILL BE SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT WINDS AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOWARD THE NOON HOUR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF TURBULENT MIXING TODAY...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DEFINED...RANGING BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. MIXING HEIGHTS AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW THE 1700 FOOT ABOVE GROUND MINIMUMS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT EVAPORATION TO SOME DEGREE...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 49. RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2400-3400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32 TO 41 MPH DECREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............46 47 47 47 47 47 47 44 RH..............59 58 56 56 53 53 52 57 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.35 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 39 37 35 34 32 RH..............62 68 70 72 77 77 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 5 W 5 W 4 W 4 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2100 1600 1100 700 700 700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 30 W 29 W 29 W 26 W 24 NW 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............32 35 43 46 RH..............80 68 53 47 20 FT WIND......NW 3G5 NW 3G5 NW 3G5 N 4G5 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1400 1900 2100 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 17 NW 13 NW 8 N 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...ERIC PFEILSCHIFTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120123.CRABO.01/PAH