FNUS75 KGJT 252053
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOAP CREEK...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
153 PM MST WED JAN 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MST ON JANUARY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE ON THE RIM OF BROAD WESTERN RIDGE LEAVING
FAST MODERATELY FLOW OVER A MID LEVEL INVERSION. MIXING UP TO THIS
INVERSION LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE LOW END FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...EVEN THOUGH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN THE INVERSION ALOFT AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 38 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST AT AROUND 5  TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR FROM 1400 TO 1600.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 5000 FT AGL IN
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...ROSS OXFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120126.SOAPC.01/GJT