FNUS75 KGJT 261600
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPIN PILE RX...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
900 AM MST THU JAN 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON JANUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP BRING GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL
CONDITIONS BY WEAKENING THE INVERSION ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY SUNRISE TURING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR
SATURDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR 4500 FEET AGL.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR
                    20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN BECOMING GOOD
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO NEAR 3500 FT AGL BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 22 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 15 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL NEAR SUNSET DECREASING TO 1000 FT
                    AGL OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 MPH...BECOMING 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND
                    12 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING...INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...KEITH KRAUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120127.CHAPI.01/GJT