FNUS71 KRNK 301356 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR LOCHER TRACT RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 856 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON JANUARY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PROVIDED EXCELLENT DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS HAVE NOW GONE 3 DAYS WITHOUT RAIN...CLOSER TO 6 DAYS WITHOUT RAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 IN VA/NC. CALCULATED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES FROM LOCAL FIRE RAWS ARE NOW IN A 9-13 PERCENT RANGE...SUGGESTING WE HAVE NOW ENTERED A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAVORABLE FOR PRESCRIBED BURNING. BEHAVEPLUS CALCULATION FOR THE FINE DEAD 1HR FUELS...DORMANT GRASSES...IS FORECASTING THE MINIMUM MOISTURE CONTENT TO BE IN THE 6-8 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SHOULD GET FULL CONSUMPTION OF FUEL MODELS 1 AND 3. LEAF LITTER...OR FUEL MODEL 9...MAY STILL BE TOO MOIST ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING SLOPES WHERE SUN ANGLE IS LOW AND FUELS ARE SHADED. SOUTH SLOPES SHOULD RECEIVE FULL SUN TODAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY BE DRY/WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OBJECTIVES. WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM THE WEST...TENDING MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING SHOWERS BEGINS WEDNESDAY. NO FROST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WINDS REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH AND DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FORMATION. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY SUPPORTED BY A VALLEY INVERSION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........31 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 17 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............8 18 29 33 32 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................31 41 46 49 48 RH..................46 32 27 26 30 20 FT WIND..........S 2 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 10 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65. RH..................MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............8 9 8 7 7 11 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................35 35 47 54 60 64 RH..................61 62 40 32 27 25 20 FT WIND..........W 2 W 3 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 15 15 15 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...STONEFIELD/WILSON REQUESTED BY...TED DOCEV TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120130.LOCHE.01/RNK