FNUS74 KLIX 302029 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR G-15C...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 229 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WINDS TOOK LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY TO TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO DO SO IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS HAS ALLOWED RH VALUES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE. 1. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF A WEST WIND DEVELOPING DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 2. GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IN TEXAS... WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND DAYTIME HEATING MIXES DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 3. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN TUESDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 4. AT A MINIMUM...GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE RH VALUES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S PERCENTILE RANGE. 5. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 MPH BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING CREATES THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. 6. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 4-5 PM ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. .TONIGHT... TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........49 49 49 49 49 49 70 70 70 70 70 70 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 55 54 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 RH..............59 66 69 71 77 77 77 77 80 80 83 83 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 DISPERSION......10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TUESDAY... TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 73 73 68 68 68 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............53 58 64 69 70 68 RH..............83 77 70 63 66 73 20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5 E 6 SE 9 SE 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1700 2900 2900 3200 MIX HGT (M).....90 90 520 880 880 980 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 SE 18 SE 18 SE 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 DISPERSION......0 0 34 43 43 48 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .TUESDAY NIGHT... TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........75 75 75 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 63 63 63 62 62 RH..............84 87 87 87 93 93 20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 900 700 700 700 MIX HGT (M).....760 760 270 210 210 210 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 20 SE 20 SE 21 SE 22 SE 22 SE 21 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 SE 9 DISPERSION......26 26 19 20 20 19 CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 80 80 80 $$ FORECASTER...GRIGSBY REQUESTED BY...SCOTT SAUCIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120131.G15C_.01/LIX