FNUS71 KRNK 011718
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHESTNUT OAK BURN...PILOT MTN STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1218 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1340 EST ON FEBRUARY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS WILL FALL APART AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN AS DINNERTIME OR
AROUND 6PM...BUT STILL ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT. CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER DARK. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY HIGH AND THIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COULD EVEN STILL BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS AROUND 3 PM. IF THIS OCCURS
TEMPS MAY BE WARMER AND RH MAY BE DRIER OR LOWER.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON (80-90 PERCENT).
                    A SHOWER POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65 AT CAMPGROUND. AROUND 60 AT RIDGETOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT AT CAMPGROUND. 35 PERCENT AT RIDGETOP.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............60     75     90
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58     60     59
RH..................40     35     40
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     20     20
CWR.................10     10     30

$$
FORECASTER...MATTAROCHIA
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120201.CHEST.03/RNK