FNUS75 KBOU 020502 CCA FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO JONES PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 933 PM MST WED FEB 1 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS (THURSDAY) MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE DAY AND SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BY FRIDAY EVENING BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THIS STORM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AT TIMES HEAVY...ON THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS HEAVY SNOWFALL. SOME MODELS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOUTH PARK SHOULD SEE ITS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WHEN EASTERLY WINDS GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP AGAINST THE MOSQUITO RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH IS A DRYING WIND FOR SOUTH PARK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-39. MIN HUMIDITY........28-36%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 9-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 6000-7000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. MIN TEMPERATURE.....19. MAX HUMIDITY........92-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 7-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN 2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-31. MIN HUMIDITY........45%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1200. POOR AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BUFFALO JONESPILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/01-21 71 0 0 30 27 CALM 1 4 1 SW35 3577 SW12 43332 F 02/01-22 71 0 0 27 30 W 2 2 4 1 SW33 2224 SW 8 23758 P 02/01-23 91 0 0 25 33 W 2 2 3 1 SW31 871 SW 6 4185 P 02/02-00 91 0 0 24 35 W 3 3 3 1 SW29 705 SW 5 3186 P 02/02-01 91 0 0 23 37 NW 5 5 2 1 S25 539 W 5 2187 P 02/02-02 91 0 0 22 38 NW 5 5 2 1 S23 373 W 3 1188 P 02/02-03 91 0 0 21 41 NW 5 5 2 1 S23 342 W 3 1095 P 02/02-04 91 0 0 20 42 NW 3 3 2 1 SW23 310 NW 3 1002 P 02/02-05 96 57 33 20 44 NW 3 3 2 1 SW22 279 NW 3 909 P 02/02-06 96 57 33 20 45 N 2 2 2 1 SW20 354 N 3 1207 P 02/02-07 96 57 33 21 45 NE 2 2 2 1 SW15 429 NE 3 1504 P 02/02-08 96 70 53 22 43 E 2 2 2 1 SW12 504 NE 5 1802 P 02/02-09 97 70 53 25 39 E 5 5 2 1 SW10 2623 E 6 19138 P 02/02-10 97 70 53 29 32 NE 8 14 2 1 S 8 4742 E 7 36475 P 02/02-11 97 65 45 32 29 NE12 18 2 1 S 8 6861 E 9 53811 F 02/02-12 97 65 45 34 28 NE13 21 2 1 S 6 6973 E10 59893 F 02/02-13 97 65 45 34 28 NE13 21 3 1 SE 5 7084 E10 65974 G 02/02-14 98 85 76 34 29 NE13 21 3 1 SE 5 7196 E12 72056 G 02/02-15 98 85 76 33 32 NE12 20 3 1 E 5 6673 E13 72274 G 02/02-16 98 85 76 32 37 NE12 17 2 1 E 7 6151 E14 72492 G 02/02-17 100 89 82 30 42 NE10 16 2 1 E 9 5628 NE15 72709 G 02/02-18 100 89 82 29 47 NE10 16 2 1 E 9 5509 NE16 75529 G 02/02-19 100 89 82 27 51 NE10 16 2 1 E10 5389 NE17 78349 G 02/02-20 100 89 82 26 55 NE10 16 2 1 E10 5270 NE17 81169 G 02/02-21 100 89 82 24 59 NE10 10 2 1 E13 4939 NE16 70529 G 02/02-22 100 89 82 23 62 NE10 10 3 1 E16 4582 NE16 63621 G 02/02-23 100 80 68 22 64 NE10 10 3 1 E17 4224 NE15 56714 F 02/03-00 100 80 68 21 66 NE10 10 3 1 E18 3642 NE17 51597 F 02/03-01 100 80 68 21 67 NE10 10 3 1 E18 3059 NE18 46480 F 02/03-02 100 80 68 20 67 NE 9 9 3 1 E17 2477 N20 41364 F 02/03-03 100 80 68 20 65 N 9 9 3 1 E17 2698 NE20 47492 F 02/03-04 100 80 68 20 63 N 9 9 2 1 NE17 2919 NE21 53620 F 02/03-05 100 80 68 20 63 N 8 10 2 1 NE16 3140 NE22 59748 F 02/03-06 100 80 68 20 66 NE10 10 2 1 NE15 3655 NE21 64336 G 02/03-07 100 80 68 20 72 NE10 10 2 1 NE14 4170 NE20 68924 G 02/03-08 100 80 68 21 71 NE10 10 2 1 NE13 4685 NE18 73513 G 02/03-09 100 80 68 22 62 NE10 10 2 1 E10 4903 NE16 68848 G 02/03-10 100 80 68 23 53 E12 12 2 1 E 8 5121 NE15 64184 G 02/03-11 100 70 53 25 46 E12 18 2 1 E 6 5340 E13 59519 F 02/03-12 100 70 53 26 45 E12 12 2 1 SE 5 5438 E12 51586 F 02/03-13 100 70 53 26 47 E12 12 2 1 S 3 5537 E 9 43653 F 02/03-14 100 70 53 26 49 E10 10 2 1 SW 3 5636 E 7 35720 P 02/03-15 100 70 53 26 48 E 9 9 2 1 SW 3 5444 E 7 32957 P 02/03-16 100 70 53 25 49 E 9 9 2 1 SW 6 5253 E 7 30194 P 02/03-17 89 60 38 23 53 E 8 8 2 1 SW 7 5061 SE 6 27431 P 02/03-18 89 60 38 22 61 E 7 7 2 1 SW 9 4663 SE 7 28019 P 02/03-19 89 60 38 21 70 SE 7 7 2 1 SW10 4265 SE 8 28608 P 02/03-20 89 60 38 20 78 SE 6 6 2 1 SW13 3867 SE 9 29197 P 02/03-21 89 60 38 19 78 SE 6 6 2 1 SW14 3611 SE 9 27995 P 02/03-22 89 60 38 18 73 E 5 5 2 1 SW15 3356 SE 9 26794 P 02/03-23 67 30 9 17 69 E 5 5 2 1 SW16 3100 SE 9 25592 P 02/04-00 67 30 9 16 72 E 5 5 2 1 SW16 2937 SE 9 24411 P 02/04-01 67 30 9 16 75 SE 5 5 2 1 SW17 2775 S 9 23230 P 02/04-02 67 30 9 16 77 SE 5 5 2 1 SW18 2612 S 9 22048 P 02/04-03 67 30 9 15 75 SE 3 3 2 1 SW22 2628 S 9 22068 P 02/04-04 67 30 9 15 70 SE 2 2 2 1 W25 2644 S 9 22089 P 02/04-05 63 30 9 15 64 CALM 1 2 1 W29 2660 SW 9 22109 P 02/04-06 63 30 9 15 58 CALM 1 2 1 W32 3253 SW10 29438 P 02/04-07 63 30 9 16 52 CALM 1 2 1 W35 3846 SW10 36768 P 02/04-08 63 30 9 19 43 CALM 1 2 1 W37 4439 SW12 44097 F 02/04-09 63 30 9 21 36 SE 2 2 2 1 W38 4844 SW12 49160 F 02/04-10 63 30 9 23 31 SE 5 5 2 1 W40 5249 SW12 54223 F 02/04-11 83 30 9 26 28 SE 6 6 2 1 W44 5653 SW12 59286 F 02/04-12 83 30 9 27 25 SE 6 6 2 1 W51 6082 SW15 77955 G 02/04-13 83 30 9 29 25 SE 6 6 2 1 W58 6511 W17 96625 G 02/04-14 83 30 9 29 25 SE 6 6 2 1 W64 6939 W20 115295 V 02/04-15 83 30 9 29 28 SE 5 5 2 1 W67 6469 W18 101486 V 02/04-16 83 30 9 28 32 S 3 3 2 1 W68 6000 SW16 87678 G 02/04-17 40 0 0 25 38 S 2 2 2 1 W68 5530 SW15 73869 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...RYAN HARLOW REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120202.BUFFA.01/BOU