FNUS72 KMFL 050221
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR HLL FF8 28...JAMES HULL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2130 EST ON FEBRUARY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGER WINDS WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DUE TO
THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH.
WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

CURRENTLY, MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BETWEEN
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE FIRE SITE.

WITH WEAKER WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
TO BE POOR TO FAIR FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............9.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   7 AM
20 FT WIND......E 6    E 5    E 4    E 4    E 3    E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2000   700    500    500    500    2000
MIXNG WIND......E 10   E 8    E 7    E 7    E 6    E 5
DISPERSION IDX..9      6      5      5      4      13
LVORI...........9      9      9      9      9      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     30

.SUNDAY...

WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-3900 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 23 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ESTUPINAN
REQUESTED BY...JAMES HULL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120204.HLLFF.01/MFL