FNUS75 KBOU 062323 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK SURVEY...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 417 PM MST MON FEB 6 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. LOOK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0500...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....7. MAX HUMIDITY........96%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(70-80%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....24. MIN HUMIDITY........65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4800-5200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....7. MAX HUMIDITY........90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5000-6000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELK SURVE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/06-16 80 42 19 28 51 NE 6 6 2 1 NW10 6321 NE 8 43508 F 02/06-17 83 60 38 25 58 NE 6 6 2 1 NW13 5514 NE 9 41466 F 02/06-18 83 60 38 20 70 NE 6 6 2 1 NW14 5312 N 8 37932 P 02/06-19 83 60 38 19 73 NE 5 5 2 1 N14 5110 N 8 34397 P 02/06-20 83 60 38 17 75 NE 5 5 2 1 N13 4909 N 7 30863 P 02/06-21 83 60 38 15 81 E 5 5 2 1 NW13 4100 N 6 23425 P 02/06-22 83 60 38 14 81 E 5 5 2 1 NW12 3291 N 5 15986 P 02/06-23 80 60 38 12 84 E 5 5 2 1 NW12 2482 N 3 8548 P 02/07-00 80 60 38 12 81 E 5 5 2 1 NW13 2229 NW 5 7945 P 02/07-01 80 60 38 11 83 E 3 3 2 1 NW13 1976 NW 5 7342 P 02/07-02 80 60 38 10 86 E 3 3 2 1 NW14 1723 W 5 6739 P 02/07-03 80 60 38 9 91 NE 2 2 2 1 NW14 1618 W 5 6658 P 02/07-04 80 60 38 10 86 CALM 1 2 1 NW15 1514 W 5 6578 P 02/07-05 80 10 2 9 88 CALM 1 2 1 NW15 1410 W 6 6497 P 02/07-06 80 10 2 8 92 CALM 1 2 1 NW16 1281 W 6 5892 P 02/07-07 80 10 2 7 96 W 2 2 2 1 NW17 1152 W 6 5287 P 02/07-08 80 10 2 8 94 SW 2 2 2 1 NW18 1024 W 6 4682 P 02/07-09 80 10 2 12 84 SW 2 2 2 1 NW21 2273 W 9 25795 P 02/07-10 80 10 2 16 76 S 2 2 2 1 NW23 3522 W13 46908 F 02/07-11 70 0 0 19 71 S 2 2 2 1 NW26 4771 W16 68021 G 02/07-12 70 0 0 22 67 SW 2 2 2 1 NW30 4928 W17 74626 G 02/07-13 60 0 0 24 65 SW 2 2 2 1 W35 5086 W18 81230 G 02/07-14 52 0 0 23 68 SW 2 2 2 1 W39 5243 W20 87835 G 02/07-15 52 0 0 23 67 SW 2 2 2 1 W43 5143 W21 91917 G 02/07-16 52 0 0 21 68 W 2 2 2 1 W46 5044 W22 95999 G 02/07-17 37 0 0 19 69 W 3 3 2 1 W49 4944 W23 100081 V 02/07-18 37 0 0 16 74 W 5 5 2 1 W51 3848 W21 74065 G 02/07-19 37 0 0 15 72 W 6 6 2 1 W51 2752 W18 48049 F 02/07-20 37 0 0 14 70 W 8 8 2 1 W51 1656 W15 22033 P 02/07-21 37 0 0 12 71 W10 10 2 1 W51 1279 W15 17031 P 02/07-22 37 0 0 12 69 W12 12 2 1 W51 902 W15 12029 P 02/07-23 26 0 0 10 69 W13 13 2 1 W49 525 W15 7027 P 02/08-00 26 0 0 11 66 W13 13 2 1 W49 469 W15 6245 P 02/08-01 26 0 0 10 67 W13 13 2 1 W49 412 W15 5463 P 02/08-02 26 0 0 9 69 W13 13 2 1 W49 356 W15 4680 P 02/08-03 26 0 0 8 71 W13 13 2 1 NW51 337 W15 4497 P 02/08-04 26 0 0 9 68 W13 13 2 1 NW52 319 W16 4315 P 02/08-05 19 0 0 9 70 W13 13 2 1 NW52 301 W16 4132 P 02/08-06 19 0 0 8 78 W13 13 2 1 NW53 299 W16 4284 P 02/08-07 19 0 0 7 89 W14 22 2 1 NW53 298 W17 4436 P 02/08-08 19 0 0 9 90 W14 22 2 1 NW52 297 W17 4589 P 02/08-09 19 0 0 16 72 W14 22 2 1 NW52 1867 W23 50640 F 02/08-10 19 0 0 22 59 W13 13 2 1 NW51 3437 W28 96690 G 02/08-11 32 0 0 27 48 W13 13 2 1 NW49 5007 NW33 142741 V 02/08-12 32 0 0 32 41 W13 13 2 1 NW51 5341 NW33 152687 E 02/08-13 32 0 0 34 38 W12 12 2 1 NW51 5676 NW33 162632 E 02/08-14 32 0 0 34 37 W12 12 2 1 NW51 6010 NW33 172577 E 02/08-15 32 0 0 34 37 W12 12 2 1 NW51 5739 NW32 162696 E 02/08-16 32 0 0 32 40 W13 13 2 1 NW51 5468 NW32 152815 E 02/08-17 57 14 3 30 43 W13 13 2 1 NW51 5196 NW32 142934 V 02/08-18 57 14 3 26 49 W13 13 2 1 NW49 4565 NW30 122187 V 02/08-19 57 14 3 25 50 W13 13 3 1 NW48 3933 NW29 101439 V 02/08-20 57 14 3 23 51 W14 22 3 1 NW46 3302 NW28 80691 G 02/08-21 57 14 3 22 54 W14 22 3 1 NW44 2836 NW26 67037 G 02/08-22 57 14 3 21 56 W14 22 2 1 NW41 2371 W25 53382 F 02/08-23 54 14 3 19 57 W14 22 2 1 NW39 1905 W24 39728 P 02/09-00 54 14 3 20 56 W14 22 2 1 NW39 1862 W24 38862 P 02/09-01 54 14 3 19 57 W15 24 2 1 NW39 1818 W24 37996 P 02/09-02 54 14 3 18 58 W15 24 2 1 NW39 1775 W24 37130 P 02/09-03 54 14 3 17 60 W15 24 2 1 NW39 1689 W24 34767 P 02/09-04 54 14 3 18 57 W15 24 2 1 NW39 1603 W23 32404 P 02/09-05 52 14 3 17 58 W15 24 2 1 NW38 1517 W23 30041 P 02/09-06 52 14 3 17 63 W14 22 2 1 NW36 1468 W21 27105 P 02/09-07 52 14 3 16 69 W13 13 2 1 NW33 1419 W20 24170 P 02/09-08 52 14 3 17 71 W12 12 2 1 NW31 1370 NW17 21234 P 02/09-09 52 14 3 21 65 W10 10 2 1 NW29 2658 NW16 30899 P 02/09-10 52 14 3 25 59 W 9 9 2 1 NW25 3945 NW14 40564 F 02/09-11 47 14 3 28 54 W 8 8 2 1 NW22 5233 NW12 50229 F 02/09-12 47 14 3 31 49 W 7 7 2 1 NW20 5515 NW12 52809 F 02/09-13 47 14 3 32 46 W 7 7 2 1 NW17 5797 NW12 55388 F 02/09-14 47 14 3 32 45 W 6 6 2 1 NW16 6078 NW12 57968 F 02/09-15 47 14 3 32 44 NW 6 6 2 1 NW16 5825 NW12 58656 F 02/09-16 47 14 3 30 46 NW 5 5 3 1 NW16 5571 NW13 59345 F 02/09-17 30 9 2 28 50 NW 5 5 3 1 NW16 5318 NW13 60033 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...THERESE JOHNSON REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20120206.ELKSU.01/BOU