FNUS74 KEPZ 061441
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR 3 CIRCLES- MCKNIGHT S-UPDATE...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
741 AM MST MON FEB 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0730 MST ON FEBRUARY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SET UP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VENTILATION RATES REACHING THE VERY GOOD CATEGORY
AS THE INVERSION UP AROUND 2000 FT AGL BREAKS.  EXPECT VERY GOOD
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WITH MIN RH TODAY AROUND 30-35 PERCENT HEADING
BACK UP TO AROUND 65 PERCENT BY TUE MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE ERRATIC...RESULTING IN
POOR VENT CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

...PUT DISCUSSION TEXT HERE...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........30 AT IGNITION...MAX 50.
RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    BY MIDDAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...AFTERNOON MAX 4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 11 KNOTS INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 23 KNOTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........MAX 103,500 KNOT-FEET (VERY GOOD)


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 24.
RH..................MAX 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 KNOTS DECREASING TO 4 TO 5 KNOTS
                    AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48.
RH..................MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4 TO 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........25,000 KNOT-FEET (POOR)

$$

FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...LIZ CARVER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120206.3CIRC.02/EPZ