FNUS75 KBOU 072323 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK SURVEY...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 423 PM MST TUE FEB 7 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT AS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE...PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH CEILINGS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN LOWERING CEILINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 1400 WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING SOON THEREAFTER. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....8-12. MAX HUMIDITY........68-74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1000...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-38. MIN HUMIDITY........42-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 4600-5400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500. MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-20. MAX HUMIDITY........56-64%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1800-2800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-38. MIN HUMIDITY........38-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELK SURVEY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/07-16 70 11 2 22 68 S 6 6 4 1 W29 3440 W16 47879 F 02/07-17 48 0 0 20 69 SW 5 5 4 1 W32 3071 W17 47580 F 02/07-18 48 0 0 19 68 SW 5 5 4 1 W35 2519 W17 38518 P 02/07-19 48 0 0 18 65 W 7 7 3 1 W38 1966 W17 29457 P 02/07-20 28 3 1 17 62 W 8 8 3 1 W39 1414 W16 20395 P 02/07-21 28 3 1 15 59 W 9 15 3 1 W41 1149 W18 17466 P 02/07-22 28 3 1 15 57 W12 17 3 1 W44 884 W20 14536 P 02/07-23 27 0 0 14 56 W13 20 3 1 W45 619 W22 11606 P 02/08-00 27 0 0 13 57 W14 20 3 1 W46 541 W21 9775 P 02/08-01 27 0 0 13 57 W14 21 4 1 W47 464 W20 7945 P 02/08-02 16 0 0 12 58 W14 21 4 1 W47 387 W18 6114 P 02/08-03 16 0 0 12 57 W14 22 4 1 W47 391 W20 6582 P 02/08-04 16 0 0 12 56 W15 22 4 1 W47 396 W21 7050 P 02/08-05 41 0 0 12 56 W15 23 4 1 W46 401 W22 7518 P 02/08-06 41 0 0 12 59 W15 23 3 1 W45 760 W25 19132 P 02/08-07 41 0 0 14 59 W15 22 3 1 W45 1120 W29 30745 P 02/08-08 41 0 0 18 56 W15 23 2 1 W45 1479 W33 42359 F 02/08-09 41 0 0 22 53 W15 23 2 1 W45 2532 W36 83851 G 02/08-10 41 0 0 25 51 W16 24 2 1 NW46 3586 W39 125343 V 02/08-11 79 15 3 29 48 W16 24 2 1 NW47 4639 W41 166835 E 02/08-12 79 15 3 32 46 W16 24 2 1 NW49 4922 W40 173362 E 02/08-13 79 15 3 34 44 W16 23 2 1 W51 5206 W40 179889 E 02/08-14 79 15 3 35 44 W15 23 2 1 W52 5489 W39 186416 E 02/08-15 79 15 3 35 47 W14 21 2 1 W49 5372 W38 176886 E 02/08-16 79 15 3 33 51 W14 20 2 1 W47 5255 W37 167356 E 02/08-17 63 10 2 31 55 W13 20 2 1 W44 5139 W36 157826 E 02/08-18 63 10 2 28 55 W13 18 2 1 W41 4605 W33 135382 V 02/08-19 63 10 2 27 49 W13 21 2 1 NW39 4072 W31 112938 V 02/08-20 63 10 2 25 48 W13 21 2 1 NW37 3538 W30 90494 G 02/08-21 63 10 2 23 49 W13 20 2 1 NW35 3143 W28 76750 G 02/08-22 63 10 2 22 52 W12 18 2 1 NW33 2748 W25 63005 G 02/08-23 79 10 2 21 54 W12 18 2 1 NW32 2353 W24 49261 F 02/09-00 79 10 2 20 56 W12 18 2 1 NW31 2180 W24 45194 F 02/09-01 79 10 2 19 57 W13 20 2 1 NW31 2008 W23 41127 F 02/09-02 79 10 2 18 57 W13 21 2 1 NW30 1835 W23 37059 P 02/09-03 79 10 2 18 57 W13 20 2 1 NW29 1813 W23 36124 P 02/09-04 79 10 2 18 57 W12 20 2 1 NW28 1790 W23 35189 P 02/09-05 69 0 0 18 57 W12 18 2 1 NW26 1768 W22 34254 P 02/09-06 69 0 0 18 59 W12 18 2 1 NW23 2051 W21 36046 P 02/09-07 69 0 0 19 60 W12 18 2 1 NW21 2334 NW20 37837 P 02/09-08 69 0 0 22 58 W12 18 2 1 NW20 2617 NW17 39629 P 02/09-09 69 0 0 25 55 W12 18 2 1 NW20 3511 NW16 46061 F 02/09-10 69 0 0 28 53 W10 17 2 1 NW22 4405 NW14 52493 F 02/09-11 36 0 0 30 50 W10 16 2 1 NW23 5299 NW13 58926 F 02/09-12 36 0 0 32 46 W10 16 2 1 NW22 5638 NW13 64376 G 02/09-13 36 0 0 34 43 W 9 15 3 1 NW21 5976 NW14 69826 G 02/09-14 36 0 0 35 41 W 9 15 3 1 NW18 6315 NW14 75277 G 02/09-15 36 0 0 34 41 W 9 14 3 1 NW18 5966 NW14 72115 G 02/09-16 36 0 0 33 42 W 8 13 3 1 NW17 5618 NW14 68954 G 02/09-17 18 0 0 30 46 W 8 13 3 1 NW17 5270 NW14 65793 G 02/09-18 18 0 0 27 50 W 8 14 3 1 NW16 5113 NW15 64456 G 02/09-19 18 0 0 25 53 W 9 15 2 1 NW15 4956 NW15 63119 G 02/09-20 18 0 0 24 57 W10 16 2 1 NW15 4799 NW15 61782 G 02/09-21 18 0 0 22 60 W10 17 2 1 NW17 4456 NW15 56444 F 02/09-22 18 0 0 20 63 W12 18 2 1 NW20 4113 NW14 51107 F 02/09-23 21 0 0 19 65 W12 18 2 1 NW22 3770 W14 45769 F 02/10-00 21 0 0 18 67 W12 18 2 1 NW25 3468 W14 42895 F 02/10-01 21 0 0 17 67 W12 18 3 1 NW28 3167 W15 40020 F 02/10-02 21 0 0 17 67 W12 18 3 1 NW30 2865 W15 37146 P 02/10-03 21 0 0 16 65 W12 18 3 1 NW31 2828 W16 40532 F 02/10-04 21 0 0 16 62 W12 18 2 1 NW32 2790 W18 43918 F 02/10-05 24 6 1 16 60 W12 18 2 1 N32 2753 NW20 47304 F 02/10-06 24 6 1 16 63 W10 17 3 1 NW33 2962 NW21 54052 F 02/10-07 24 6 1 17 66 W 9 15 3 1 NW35 3172 NW22 60799 G 02/10-08 24 6 1 20 65 W 8 13 4 1 NW37 3382 NW23 67547 G 02/10-09 24 6 1 23 60 W 7 7 4 1 NW39 4006 NW24 82990 G 02/10-10 24 6 1 26 57 W 7 7 3 1 NW43 4630 NW24 98434 G 02/10-11 37 7 1 29 53 W 7 7 2 1 NW46 5254 NW25 113877 V 02/10-12 37 7 1 31 49 W 7 7 2 1 NW49 5480 NW28 129678 V 02/10-13 37 7 1 33 47 W 7 7 2 1 NW53 5706 NW29 145480 V 02/10-14 37 7 1 33 47 W 8 13 2 1 NW55 5932 NW31 161281 E 02/10-15 37 7 1 33 49 W 9 15 2 1 NW55 5684 NW32 156718 E 02/10-16 37 7 1 32 52 W12 18 2 1 NW54 5437 NW32 152154 E 02/10-17 37 9 2 30 57 W13 21 2 1 NW53 5189 NW32 147591 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...THERESE JOHNSON REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20120207.ELKSU.01/BOU