FNUS71 KAKQ 081424 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR SHORTERS WHARF NORTH WEST...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 924 AM EST WED FEB 8 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME CLOUDY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT INCREASING LIGHT PRECIPITATION/RAIN OVER THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AROUND 0.15 INCHES TOTAL LIQUID)... POTENTIALLY CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES ONLY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39 TO 42 AT IGNITION. MAX 44 TO46. MIN HUMIDITY........69 TO 74 PERCENT AT IGNITION. 53 TO 58 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. ADI.................10...INCREASING TO 15 LATE. LVORI...............4. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT AT IGNITION. 60 PERCENT AFTER 1200 HOURS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-700 FT AGL AT IGNITION. 2000-2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (1600-11500 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............66 73 80 88 95 95 94 94 93 WEATHER COV......... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................39 42 43 44 44 45 45 44 42 RH..................78 76 72 67 62 59 55 59 64 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 20 40 60 60 60 60 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 12 10 9 8 10 12 13 14 VRATE KT-FT/1000....4 7 7 9 12 20 25 26 23 LVORI...............3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 ADI.................10 14 13 12 11 11 13 14 15 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30 TO 34. MAX HUMIDITY........91 TO 96 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADI.................13...DECREASING TO 8 IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 15 LATE. LVORI...............6. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT IN THE EVENING...20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (2000-5700 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............93 92 91 90 90 89 88 87 79 71 63 54 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........RS RS RS RS RS RS SN SN SN SN SN SN TSTM COV............ TEMP................40 37 36 35 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 32 RH..................76 85 89 96 96 96 92 92 92 89 92 88 CHC OF PCPN (%).....40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 13 12 10 9 9 9 10 12 14 16 17 VRATE KT-FT/1000....6 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 LVORI...............4 4 4 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 ADI.................15 14 13 11 4 6 7 8 12 14 15 15 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....44 TO 46. MIN HUMIDITY........39 TO 44 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. ADI.................12. LVORI...............4. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN 0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1700-2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (5900-30300 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............46 38 33 27 22 16 11 5 6 6 7 7 WEATHER COV.........SCH WEATHER TYPE........SN TSTM COV............ TEMP................31 32 33 35 37 40 42 44 44 45 44 42 RH..................92 85 82 72 64 57 50 47 45 41 43 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).....20 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.7 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 17 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 10 VRATE KT-FT/1000....6 6 12 16 21 24 27 30 29 28 25 15 LVORI...............5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ADI.................15 11 11 10 16 16 16 16 11 10 9 8 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECASTER...DEROSA REQUESTED BY...ART CANTERBURY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120208.SHORT.01/AKQ