FNUS74 KLIX 072140 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT O-04...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 340 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TOMORROW. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 1. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT. FOR THE FIRE SITE...THE MINIMUM FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS 34 PERCENT. WITH THAT SAID...DEWPOINTS WOULD HAVE TO DROP ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES LOWER THAN ANY MODEL SHOWS THEM DROPPING IN ORDER TO REACH THE 28 PERCENT THRESHOLD. 2. FOG IS NOT A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY. 3. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...ABOUT 3 KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. 4. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. 5. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH NO EASTERLY COMPONENT...BETWEEN 330 AND 360 DEGREES. WITH THAT SAID... THE ODDS OF WIND DIRECTION MOVING OUT OF THE ALLOWED RANGE ARE LOW. 6. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN 340 AND 360 DEGREES. 7. LVORI MAXIMUMS... TONIGHT...2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...1 8. THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST... TEMPERATURE...FALLING FROM 58 AT 6PM TO 41 AT 6AM DEWPOINT...FAIRLY STEADY NEAR 40 DEGREES THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK. WIND...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY...PEAKS AT ABOUT 90 PERCENT NEAR DAYBREAK PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. .TONIGHT... TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........25 25 25 55 55 55 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............62 55 51 48 47 45 RH..............60 74 86 93 89 89 20 FT WIND......N 2 N 2 N 2 N 3 N 4 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2700 1200 400 400 400 MIX HGT (M).....820 820 370 120 120 120 TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 N 10 N 9 N 9 N 9 N 14 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 N 6 DISPERSION......5 5 4 6 6 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .WEDNESDAY... TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........42 42 42 30 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 47 58 64 68 66 RH..............89 83 53 40 34 38 20 FT WIND......N 5 N 6 N 8 N 9 N 8 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....600 600 2700 4500 4500 5100 MIX HGT (M).....180 180 820 1370 1370 1550 TRANSPORT WIND..N 18 N 18 N 18 N 17 N 17 N 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 8 N 8 N 8 N 8 N 8 N 9 DISPERSION......15 6 55 51 68 82 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SCOTT SAUCIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120208.CPTO0.01/LIX