FNUS72 KMFL 091320 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR BC-SW5...SEMINOLE TRIBE OF FLORIDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 820 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH -EAST U.S. FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS...DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT/HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING UPON THE EAST COAST BUT DISSIPATING JUST A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST AFFECTING BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY. BUT AS THE FRONT NEARS SOUTH FLORIDA...PLUS SOME INCREASED SUNSHINE AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS/PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND GUSTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF A SHOWER MOVES OVER THE BURN SITE. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WELL...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. BUT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. DISPERSION WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER NUMBERS OF THE GENERALLY GOOD CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT. LAL.................1. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 41. LVORI...............5. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM SKY (%).........87 87 82 82 82 80 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ TEMP............70 75 78 77 73 67 RH..............72 59 54 55 66 81 20 FT WIND......N 7 N 7 NE 9 NE 8 NE 8 NE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2600 3500 3000 3000 1900 MIXNG WIND......N 15 N 15 NE 17 NE 15 NE 15 NE 12 DISPERSION IDX..43 43 45 36 36 12 LVORI...........5 5 5 5 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 62. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. LAL.................1. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....36 DECREASING TO 2. LVORI...............8. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 80. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 58 PERCENT. LAL.................1. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 22. LVORI...............5. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ROTHFUSS REQUESTED BY...MIKE LIGHTSEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120209.BCSW5.01/MFL