FNUS71 KAKQ 101538 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR APNAP 9 EAST...VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY (VADOF) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1038 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR TO FAIR (25500-80000 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............40 50 55 61 64 68 72 75 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................46 49 51 53 55 55 55 53 RH..................59 53 49 43 37 39 40 46 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW S S 20 FT WIND SPD......6 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 16 17 19 20 20 18 14 VRATE KT-FT/1000....26 38 48 62 72 72 61 36 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......250 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (1500-3800 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 98 95 93 90 WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 47 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 44 44 44 RH..................54 63 71 76 86 89 96 100 100 93 93 89 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 30 30 30 60 60 60 70 70 70 70 70 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S S SW W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S S S SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 6 8 12 15 14 12 9 8 8 8 9 VRATE KT-FT/1000....7 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT EARLY MORNING...20 PERCENT AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH...BECOMING WEST 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR TO FAIR (2300-46000 FT-MPH)... INCREASING TO GOOD (63100-102500 FT-MPH) IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............88 86 81 77 73 71 69 67 70 72 75 76 WEATHER COV.........LKY SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RN RN RN RN RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................44 44 45 46 47 48 50 51 51 50 48 45 RH..................89 86 79 76 71 65 61 56 54 52 54 55 CHC OF PCPN (%).....70 20 20 20 10 10 10 20 20 20 40 40 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 4.6 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 25 25 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 12 12 12 13 14 16 18 20 21 23 25 VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 3 8 14 22 32 46 63 74 85 103 101 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECASTER...MCGEE REQUESTED BY...REBECCA WILSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120210.APNAP.01/AKQ