FNUS71 KAKQ 101503 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR Q2 COLES CREEK...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE (NWR) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1003 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN SHORE. THE LOW THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. ADI.................10 TO 15...INCREASING TO 38 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 20 LATE. LVORI...............2. SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR TO POOR (7000-36000 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............26 36 47 57 67 70 73 76 79 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................42 43 45 47 48 49 49 47 47 RH..................58 54 51 48 46 45 47 52 56 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.9 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....8 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....7 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 8 VRATE KT-FT/1000....7 11 17 24 34 33 30 22 15 LVORI...............2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 ADI.................11 16 23 37 38 34 29 23 16 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. ADI.................9. LVORI...............3. MIXING HEIGHT.......250 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR (1500-6600 FT-MPH). HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............83 86 88 90 93 95 98 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................45 42 42 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 41 RH..................62 73 76 79 82 85 82 86 86 82 82 85 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 30 30 30 80 80 80 80 80 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S S SW W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S SE S S S S SW SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 14 VRATE KT-FT/1000....7 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 LVORI...............2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI.................11 8 9 10 7 7 5 10 10 11 12 12 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT MORNING...THEN 30 PERCENT AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO 24 TO 29 MPH LATE. VENTILATION RATE....VERY POOR TO POOR (3000-36400 FT-MPH)...INCREASING TO FAIR TO GOOD (53200-80900 FT-MPH) IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM CHC OF PCPN (%).....80 60 60 60 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 40 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....14 14 14 14 14 15 16 18 20 22 24 29 VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 3 7 10 14 24 36 53 56 63 69 81 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECASTER...MCGEE REQUESTED BY...ART CANTERBURY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120210.Q2COL.01/AKQ