FNUS72 KMFL 101333 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR BC-SW5...SEMINOLE TRIBE OF FLORIDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 833 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EST ON FEBRUARY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING BUT THIS AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60 PERCENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER -STORMS POSSIBLE. THUNDER WILL END BY THIS EVENING BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING MIDDAY SATURDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS ARE RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND DISPERSION INDICES ARE IN THE POOR TO FAIR CATEGORY. GUT FEEL IS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS HIGH AS FORECAST WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 80. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 62 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....1 INCREASING TO 16. LVORI...............7. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. TIME (EST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM SKY (%).........87 81 81 81 87 87 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP............76 80 80 77 70 66 RH..............76 67 64 76 97 100 20 FT WIND......SE 4 S 4 SW 5 SW 5 W 4 W 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 3500 3500 3400 2000 2000 MIXNG WIND......SE 6 S 7 SW 8 SW 8 W 7 W 7 DISPERSION IDX..15 19 20 20 5 5 LVORI...........7 7 7 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 LAL.............1 2 2 2 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 61. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....20 DECREASING TO 3. LVORI...............10. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 76. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 48 PERCENT. LAL.................1. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 39. LVORI...............6. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ROTHFUSS REQUESTED BY...MIKE LIGHTSEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120210.BCSW5.01/MFL