FNUS74 KLIX 131449 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-15-C-S...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 849 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATING DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. QUESTIONS... 1. WHAT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IF FOG IS POSSIBLE, WHEN IS IT LIKELY TO OCCUR, WHAT IS THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE AND DENSITY IF RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR, HOW WILL THAT AFFECT THE FOG POTENTIAL? NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT/TUES MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL INHIBIT MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY DOES DEVELOP...SHOULD BE PATCHY AND LIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE NEAR SUNSET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 2. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE WIND GOING CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS? THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. 3. WHAT WILL BE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUST WE SHOULD EXPECT TODAY AND WHAT WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF OCCURRENCE? WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. 4. WHAT TIME IS THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA? IT APPEARS THAT AROUND NOON INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO FROM THE SOUTH AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO START SURGING NORTHWARD. 5. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF LIGHTNING AFFECTING OUR OPERATIONS TODAY? LESS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTN AND MORESO IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY JUST RAIN. 6. ALLOWABLE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE E, SE, AND SOUTH. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF WIND DIRECTION BEING OUTSIDE OF ALLOWABLE DUE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS TODAY? IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WIND SHIFTS OUTSIDE THAT RANGE FOR PROB THE NEXT HOUR OR 2 AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST. HOWEVER...ONCE WE SET IN TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH...SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THAT DIRECTION. WIND SHIFTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. MOST TODAY SHOULD BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE LESS LIKELY OF BIG WIND SHIFTS. 7.WHAT TIME WILL RAIN START AND HOW MUCH IS EXPECTED? LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LESS RAIN EXPECTED AFTER NOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WITH AROUND AN HALF AN INCH EXPECTED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........72 72 72 78 78 78 78 78 78 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 51 54 56 58 59 58 56 53 RH..............42 39 38 40 40 44 49 57 69 20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.0 2.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 17 17 17 20 20 20 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 6 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 DISPERSION......17 17 31 48 48 48 57 57 57 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 21 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO 26 TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........97 97 97 97 97 97 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............51 52 52 52 52 52 RH..............77 83 89 96 100 100 20 FT WIND......SE 9 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....4100 4100 4100 3200 3200 2000 MIX HGT (M).....1250 1250 1250 980 980 610 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 21 SE 21 S 29 S 31 S 31 S 26 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 9 SE 9 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 12 DISPERSION......58 58 80 42 42 36 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........76 76 76 25 25 25 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 56 64 71 75 72 RH..............100 100 87 68 58 64 20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 9 W 7 W 6 W 5 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 15 15 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1100 2700 3700 3700 4600 MIX HGT (M).....340 340 820 1130 1130 1400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 13 W 15 W 14 W 14 W 12 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 6 SW 6 W 7 W 6 W 6 W 5 DISPERSION......11 11 20 50 62 62 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 $$ FORECASTER...EFFERSON REQUESTED BY...SCOTT SAUCIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120213.CPTG1.01/LIX