FNUS75 KGJT 141039
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNCTION CREEK PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE BURN SITE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL
CREATE LOTS OF VARIABILITY. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND MIXING.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 6 AM MST TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....28-33 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EXCEPT EXCELLENT IN SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS
                    SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-22 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BECOMING FAIR TOWARDS MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
                    TOWARDS MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5900 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120214.JUNCT.01/GJT