FNUS75 KGJT 141033
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR YOUTH CAMP 7 8 PILES...SOUTHERN UTE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE BURN SITE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL
CREATE LOTS OF VARIABILITY. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND MIXING.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 6 AM MST TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EXCEPT EXCELLENT IN SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 FT AGL.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS
                    SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (MAX OF 44300 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MATT FLYING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120214.YOUTH.01/GJT