FNUS72 KILM 141416 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR COLEMAN SAVANNA...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 916 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EST ON FEBRUARY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRACK OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX ADI.............28. MAX LVORI...........6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (500-33700 KNOT-FT). TIME (EST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............89 97 90 88 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................52 54 54 52 RH..................55 50 54 62 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 W 4 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 LVORI...............2 2 2 2 ADI.................15 23 28 28 VRATE KT-FT/1000....12 27 34 32 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. MAX ADI.............9. MAX LVORI...........6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1200-23800 KNOT-FT). TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............87 85 82 76 70 56 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................49 50 49 47 45 43 RH..................69 68 72 75 79 82 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 SW 1 W 2 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 LVORI...............3 3 4 5 6 6 ADI.................7 9 5 2 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....24 6 2 1 3 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1800-3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH. MAX ADI.............29. MAX LVORI...........6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4600-23300 KNOT-FT). TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............53 48 37 26 23 20 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................41 45 53 59 62 62 RH..................86 81 62 51 47 47 20 FT WIND..........NW 2 NW 2 N 2 N 3 N 3 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 5 3 2 2 2 ADI.................3 3 3 24 27 26 VRATE KT-FT/1000....5 7 11 19 23 18 $$ FORECASTER...ZOUZIAS REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120214.COLEM.01/ILM