FNUS71 KRNK 141358
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHESTNUT OAK BURN- CAMPGROUND...PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
858 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY RESULTING IN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE THE CLOUD COVER...CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1300 LST
AND SUNSET...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE (0.01) OR ENOUGH TO WET THE
PAVEMENT IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...SO IN SPITE OF ANY TEMPERATURE RISE...THE
HUMIDITY WILL NOT DROP MUCH LOWER...AN RH MINIMUM OF ABOUT 40 PERCENT IS
ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED.  IF ANY WETTING OCCURS...THE HUMIDITY WILL
IMMEDIATELY JUMP ABOVE 55 PERCENT.

AFTERNOON FINE DEAD (1 HR) FUEL MOISTURE FORECAST TODAY...10 PERCENT.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON FINE DEAD (1 HR) FUEL MOISTURE FORECAST WEDNESDAY...7 PERCENT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95 PERCENT SHADING). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 8 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT 1100 LST
                    2000 FT AGL AT 1300 LST...
                    INCREASING TO ABOUT 2500 FT AGL BY 1500 LST.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH.

TIME (EST)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............92     84     87     83
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................44     45     45     44
RH..................45     43     51     55
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     10
CWR.................20     20     20     20

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120214.CHEST.01/RNK