FNUS75 KGJT 150724
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAFER TRAIL PILE...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1224 AM MST WED FEB 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY...FOR INCREASED STABILITY AND LIGHTER FLOW OVER EASTERN
UTAH.

***I USED THE CANYONLANDS AIRPORT (KCNY) ASOS OBSERVATIONS AND
 FORECAST GUIDANCE TO PREPARE THIS FORECAST...INSTEAD OF THE BIG
 INDIAN VALLEY RAWS. KCNY IS CLOSER TO THE BURN SITE BOTH IN
 PROXIMITY AND IN ELEVATION. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BURN SITE ARE
 REQUESTED FOR ADDITIONAL SPOT FORECASTS.***

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%)...INCREASING CLOUDS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON (60-70% BY SUNSET).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-3 MPH) UNTIL NOON...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 600 IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%)...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (40-50%) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......50.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 340.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 8 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.


$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...KEITH KRAUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120215.SHAFE.01/GJT