FNUS72 KILM 151609
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SLEEPY CREEK...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1109 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG WIND.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2100-2900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX ADI.............22.
MAX LVORI...........10.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (600-17400 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EST)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............9      15     19
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60     62     60
RH..................44     41     43
20 FT WIND..........NE 3   NE 2   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5
LVORI...............2      2      2
ADI.................20     22     15
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...18     20     12

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
                    LIGHT...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
MAX ADI.............8.
MAX LVORI...........10.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (100-5300 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............22     28     39     49     56     72
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57     54     51     47     45     44
RH..................48     54     60     69     80     91
20 FT WIND..........NE 2   NE 2   E 1    E 1    E 1    E 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....5
LVORI...............2      3      5      7      8      10
ADI.................8      5      4      2      2      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...6      1      0      1      1      0

$$
FORECASTER...ZOUZIAS
REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120215.SLEEP.01/ILM