FNUS71 KRNK 151349
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY MESIC OAK HICKORY BURN...PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
849 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BECOME WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INHIBIT SMOKE DISPERSION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  WETTING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (SHADING INCREASING AFTER 1400 LST
                    AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...LESS THAN 5 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AT 1100 LST
                    1800 FT AT 1300 LST
                    2300 FT AT 1500 LST
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 3
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............0      10     27     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52     55     59     57
RH..................44     37     33     35
20 FT WIND..........NW 1   S 1    SE 1   SE 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....
CWR.................0      0      0      0

REMARKS.............CALCULATED 1HR FUEL MOISTURE FOR GRASS THIS
                    AFTERNOON IS 7 PERCENT. LEAF LITTER MAY BE CLOSER
                    TO 10 PERCENT SINCE IT WILL BE IN MORE CONTACT
                    WITH THE GROUND.  THE RAVEN KNOB FIRE RAWS IS
                    CALCULATING A 10 HR FUEL MOISTURE OF 16 PERCENT.
                    WITH FULL SUN...THE 10 HOUR FUELS SHOULD DROP
                    TO AT LEAST 13 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING.


$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120215.DRYME.01/RNK