FNUS71 KRNK 151646
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY MESIC OAK HICKORY BURN...PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1146 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS
TODAY WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN FAIR DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
SMOKE DISPERSION...TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXITS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND HEADS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.  THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING SHOWERS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THROUGH 1500 LST...THEN INCREASING
                    HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...LESS THAN 5 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT 1300 LST
                    2300 FT AGL AT 1500 LST
                    MAX OF 2400 FT AGL AROUND 1600 LST...
                    DROPPING BLO 500 FT AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME
                    HEATING (1800 LST).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH
                    2 TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............0      20     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58     60     57
RH..................35     32     36
20 FT WIND..........NE 2   E1    SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5
CWR.................0      0      0

REMARKS.............RAVEN KNOB FIRE RAWS IS INDICATING
                    A CALCULATED 10 HOUR  FUEL MOISTURE
                    OF 13%. 1 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES SHOULD
                    BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER...BEHAVE PLUS
                    FORECASTING A 1HR FM OF 7 %.  GOOD
                    SOLAR HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...FUEL
                    TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE BIGGEST
                    WEATHER LIMITATION IS GETTING RID
                    OF ANY SMOKE GENERATED...DISPERSION
                    VERY POOR.


$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120215.DRYME.02/RNK