FNUS75 KBOU 161403 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHADED FUEL BREAK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 703 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS AND BETTER MIXING AND SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS WARMER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DUE MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16. MAX HUMIDITY........66%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39. MIN HUMIDITY........33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 5-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHADED FUEL BREAK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/16-06 14 4 1 17 77 W 8 13 2 1 W38 436 W 7 2619 P 02/16-07 14 4 1 19 71 W 7 7 2 1 W36 585 W 7 3238 P 02/16-08 14 4 1 22 62 NW 6 6 2 1 W35 733 W 6 3857 P 02/16-09 14 4 1 26 53 NW 7 7 2 1 W33 2326 W 9 27555 P 02/16-10 14 4 1 30 47 NW 8 8 2 1 W32 3919 W13 51252 F 02/16-11 9 1 0 34 41 NW 8 13 2 1 W31 5512 W16 74949 G 02/16-12 9 1 0 36 36 NW 7 7 2 1 W31 6491 W16 95649 G 02/16-13 9 1 0 38 33 NW 5 5 2 1 W32 7471 W17 116349 V 02/16-14 19 1 0 39 32 NW 3 3 2 1 W33 8451 W18 137050 V 02/16-15 19 1 0 38 33 NW 3 3 2 1 W33 7240 W16 107299 V 02/16-16 19 1 0 37 35 W 3 3 2 1 W33 6030 W14 77548 G 02/16-17 14 0 0 33 41 SW 3 3 2 1 W33 4819 W12 47797 F 02/16-18 14 0 0 31 45 SW 3 3 2 1 W33 3525 W 9 33310 P 02/16-19 14 0 0 28 50 W 5 5 2 1 W32 2231 W 7 18823 P 02/16-20 6 0 0 26 55 W 5 5 2 1 W31 938 W 6 4336 P 02/16-21 6 0 0 23 59 W 5 5 2 1 W29 720 W 6 3380 P 02/16-22 6 0 0 22 63 W 3 3 2 1 W25 503 W 6 2424 P 02/16-23 6 0 0 20 65 W 3 3 2 1 W22 285 W 6 1468 P 02/17-00 6 0 0 19 66 W 3 3 2 1 W18 252 W 6 1345 P 02/17-01 6 0 0 18 66 W 3 3 3 1 W15 219 W 7 1222 P 02/17-02 4 0 0 18 65 W 3 3 3 1 W13 186 W 7 1100 P 02/17-03 4 0 0 17 63 W 5 5 3 1 W13 195 W 7 1253 P 02/17-04 4 0 0 17 61 W 6 6 3 1 W13 204 W 8 1405 P 02/17-05 30 1 0 17 59 W 7 7 3 1 W14 213 W 8 1558 P 02/17-06 30 1 0 17 59 W 9 14 3 1 W15 287 W 8 1805 P 02/17-07 30 1 0 18 58 W10 16 3 1 W17 361 W 7 2053 P 02/17-08 30 1 0 22 52 W10 16 3 1 W18 435 W 6 2300 P 02/17-09 30 1 0 26 47 NW 9 14 3 1 W18 1919 NW 6 7851 P 02/17-10 30 1 0 29 44 N 7 7 2 1 W18 3404 NW 5 13402 P 02/17-11 65 15 3 32 40 E 5 5 2 1 W20 4888 N 5 18953 P 02/17-12 65 15 3 35 37 E 5 5 2 1 W21 5654 NW 6 28246 P 02/17-13 65 15 3 37 34 E 5 5 2 1 W22 6421 W 7 37539 P 02/17-14 65 15 3 37 33 E 6 6 2 1 W23 7187 W 8 46831 F 02/17-15 65 15 3 37 34 E 6 6 2 1 W23 6578 W 7 42034 F 02/17-16 65 15 3 35 36 E 6 6 2 1 W24 5969 NW 7 37237 P 02/17-17 57 15 3 32 43 NE 6 6 2 1 W23 5361 NW 7 32440 P 02/17-18 57 15 3 29 50 E 5 5 2 1 NW21 4951 NW 7 29803 P 02/17-19 57 15 3 26 59 E 3 3 2 1 NW17 4541 N 7 27166 P 02/17-20 57 15 3 24 69 SE 2 2 2 1 N16 4131 N 7 24529 P 02/17-21 57 15 3 22 79 SE 2 2 2 1 N17 3512 N 5 17136 P 02/17-22 57 15 3 20 87 SE 2 2 2 1 N20 2893 NE 3 9743 P 02/17-23 33 2 0 19 93 SE 2 2 2 1 N22 2275 CALM 2351 P 02/18-00 33 2 0 17 97 S 2 2 2 1 N21 1792 E 3 3262 P 02/18-01 33 2 0 17 97 S 3 3 2 1 N20 1309 S 5 4174 P 02/18-02 33 2 0 16 95 SW 5 5 2 1 N18 826 S 7 5086 P 02/18-03 33 2 0 15 92 SW 6 6 2 1 N17 768 SW 8 5305 P 02/18-04 33 2 0 15 87 SW 8 13 2 1 N15 711 SW 9 5523 P 02/18-05 22 2 0 15 82 W 9 15 2 1 N15 654 W10 5742 P 02/18-06 22 2 0 16 78 W10 16 2 1 N14 852 W 8 5791 P 02/18-07 22 2 0 17 71 W10 16 2 1 NW13 1049 W 7 5840 P 02/18-08 22 2 0 22 59 W 9 15 2 1 NW13 1247 W 6 5889 P 02/18-09 22 2 0 26 48 SW 7 7 2 1 NW12 2600 W 6 15031 P 02/18-10 22 2 0 31 41 S 5 5 2 1 NW10 3953 W 7 24174 P 02/18-11 27 2 0 35 34 S 2 2 2 1 W12 5305 W 7 33317 P 02/18-12 27 2 0 38 30 S 2 2 2 1 NW13 6093 NW 8 45973 F 02/18-13 27 2 0 40 28 SE 2 2 2 1 NW15 6882 NW 9 58628 F 02/18-14 27 2 0 41 27 SE 3 3 2 1 NW17 7670 NW10 71284 G 02/18-15 27 2 0 41 28 SE 2 2 2 1 NW20 6859 NW10 59867 F 02/18-16 27 2 0 39 31 SE 2 2 2 1 NW22 6049 W 9 48449 F 02/18-17 22 3 1 36 36 SE 2 2 2 1 NW22 5238 W 8 37031 P 02/18-18 22 3 1 34 41 S 5 5 2 1 NW20 4199 W 8 29443 P 02/18-19 22 3 1 32 47 SW 7 7 3 1 NW17 3160 W 8 21855 P 02/18-20 22 3 1 29 54 W 9 15 3 1 NW15 2120 W 8 14268 P 02/18-21 22 3 1 27 61 W10 17 3 1 W15 1587 W 8 10927 P 02/18-22 22 3 1 26 67 W12 18 3 1 W15 1053 W 9 7586 P 02/18-23 22 2 0 25 71 W12 18 3 1 W16 520 W 9 4245 P 02/19-00 22 2 0 23 74 W12 20 3 1 W17 420 W 9 3487 P 02/19-01 22 2 0 23 74 W12 20 2 1 SW17 319 W10 2728 P 02/19-02 22 2 0 22 73 W12 18 2 1 SW20 219 W10 1970 P 02/19-03 22 2 0 21 70 W10 17 2 1 SW23 209 W 9 1720 P 02/19-04 22 2 0 21 66 W 9 15 2 1 SW28 199 W 8 1470 P 02/19-05 38 4 1 22 62 W 8 13 2 1 SW33 189 W 7 1220 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JASON CHAPPELL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120216.SHADE.01/BOU