FNUS75 KGJT 161632
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VALLECITO WORK CENTER PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
932 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE REGION TODAY. THE BURN SITE
WILL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSAL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY MORNING (40-50%)...MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    AFTERNOON (70-80%) WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6200-6800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO FAIR
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....7-12 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2900-3700 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6800-14600 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO A
                    LOW END FAIR BY 1300...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    AGAIN BY 1630.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120216.VALLE.01/GJT