FNUS75 KBOU 211248 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 547 AM MST TUE FEB 21 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW BLOWING OVER THE DIVIDE ONTO THE BURN AREA...WHICH WOULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW WARM UP AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AS WELL AS THE EFFECTS FROM THE DOWNSLOPING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH THE STRONG WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30. MIN HUMIDITY........42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 26-41 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 56-64 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 27-42 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 53-64 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 27-41 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 61-80 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 0600. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/21-04 58 15 3 20 54 W24 40 2 1 NW30 2568 W55 124227 V 02/21-05 72 18 4 19 53 W23 37 2 1 NW31 2631 W54 124756 V 02/21-06 72 18 4 20 55 W25 43 2 1 NW30 2816 W56 137320 V 02/21-07 72 18 4 20 61 W30 52 2 1 NW30 3001 W58 149883 V 02/21-08 72 18 4 21 62 W33 59 2 1 NW30 3186 W59 162447 E 02/21-09 72 18 4 22 57 W35 60 2 1 NW31 3459 W60 180445 E 02/21-10 72 18 4 23 52 W36 59 2 1 NW33 3733 W61 198444 E 02/21-11 71 28 8 26 47 W36 58 2 1 NW37 4006 W62 216442 E 02/21-12 71 28 8 29 44 W36 60 3 1 NW40 3830 W61 202186 E 02/21-13 71 28 8 29 43 W35 62 4 1 NW46 3653 W59 187930 E 02/21-14 70 28 8 30 42 W35 63 4 1 NW51 3477 W58 173674 E 02/21-15 70 28 8 30 42 W35 61 4 1 NW58 3444 W59 176936 E 02/21-16 70 28 8 30 42 W36 59 3 1 NW62 3412 W61 180198 E 02/21-17 73 36 14 29 43 W36 56 2 1 NW66 3379 W62 183460 E 02/21-18 73 36 14 27 45 W36 56 2 1 NW63 3102 W61 165101 E 02/21-19 73 36 14 27 48 W37 56 2 1 NW60 2825 W60 146743 V 02/21-20 73 36 14 26 50 W36 56 2 1 NW54 2549 W58 128385 V 02/21-21 73 36 14 26 51 W33 58 2 1 NW49 2392 W58 119446 V 02/21-22 73 36 14 26 53 W31 58 2 1 NW45 2236 W56 110507 V 02/21-23 80 36 14 25 54 W29 63 2 1 NW43 2080 W56 101568 V 02/22-00 80 36 14 25 54 W29 62 2 1 NW44 2017 W56 98922 G 02/22-01 80 36 14 25 54 W30 62 2 1 NW46 1953 W56 96276 G 02/22-02 80 36 14 25 54 W31 62 2 1 NW49 1890 W58 93630 G 02/22-03 80 36 14 25 55 W31 63 2 1 NW52 1823 W59 92626 G 02/22-04 80 36 14 25 56 W30 65 2 1 NW53 1756 W60 91622 G 02/22-05 90 39 17 25 57 W29 68 2 1 NW53 1910 W63 105345 V 02/22-06 90 39 17 25 59 W29 72 2 1 NW49 1888 W64 105669 V 02/22-07 90 39 17 26 60 W29 72 2 1 NW46 1865 W66 105993 V 02/22-08 90 39 17 27 59 W29 73 2 1 NW43 1842 W67 106317 V 02/22-09 90 39 17 29 58 W31 74 2 1 NW40 2124 W68 124831 V 02/22-10 90 39 17 31 56 W32 74 3 1 NW38 2407 W68 143344 V 02/22-11 82 22 4 33 54 W35 75 3 1 NW39 2689 W69 161857 E 02/22-12 82 22 4 34 53 W36 74 3 1 NW46 2839 W73 178421 E 02/22-13 82 22 4 35 52 W36 73 2 1 W54 2989 W75 194985 E 02/22-14 82 22 4 35 51 W35 62 2 1 W61 3139 W77 211549 E 02/22-15 82 22 4 34 53 W33 63 2 1 W61 2820 W77 188311 E 02/22-16 82 22 4 34 53 W32 57 3 1 W59 2501 W76 165074 E 02/22-17 90 57 33 31 59 W31 57 3 1 W59 2182 W75 141836 V 02/22-18 90 57 33 28 65 W32 58 3 1 W64 1840 W74 118141 V 02/22-19 90 57 33 26 66 W35 51 2 1 W71 1498 W71 94445 G 02/22-20 90 57 33 24 69 W36 54 2 1 W78 1156 W70 70749 G 02/22-21 90 57 33 24 67 W37 54 2 1 W85 1298 W74 83203 G 02/22-22 90 57 33 23 68 W37 54 2 1 W91 1440 W76 95657 G 02/22-23 99 71 54 22 68 W36 54 2 1 W98 1582 W78 108111 V 02/23-00 99 71 54 21 68 W35 52 2 1 W104 2042 W75 131107 V 02/23-01 99 71 54 20 70 W32 48 2 1 W108 2502 W73 154103 E 02/23-02 99 71 54 20 69 W30 45 2 1 W113 2961 W69 177098 E 02/23-03 99 71 54 20 70 W28 41 2 1 W115 3321 W67 192370 E 02/23-04 99 71 54 20 69 W25 38 2 1 W117 3680 W66 207641 E 02/23-05 100 58 35 20 68 W24 37 2 1 W117 4040 W63 222912 E 02/23-06 100 58 35 20 66 W24 36 2 1 W116 4355 W62 235458 E 02/23-07 100 58 35 20 64 W24 37 2 1 W114 4670 W61 248004 E 02/23-08 100 58 35 20 62 W24 37 2 1 W110 4985 W60 260550 E 02/23-09 100 58 35 21 60 W23 35 2 1 W107 5292 W59 267608 E 02/23-10 100 58 35 21 58 W21 32 2 1 W105 5599 W56 274665 E 02/23-11 92 58 35 22 56 W20 30 2 1 W102 5906 W55 281723 E 02/23-12 92 58 35 22 54 W18 28 2 1 W102 5943 W54 280876 E 02/23-13 92 58 35 22 53 W17 26 2 1 W102 5980 W54 280030 E 02/23-14 92 58 35 22 52 W17 26 2 1NW101 6017 W53 279183 E 02/23-15 92 58 35 22 53 W17 25 2 1 NW99 5799 W53 269303 E 02/23-16 92 58 35 21 53 W17 25 2 1 NW94 5582 W53 259423 E 02/23-17 79 36 14 19 58 W17 26 2 1 NW91 5364 W54 249542 E 02/23-18 79 36 14 17 63 W17 25 2 1 NW87 5181 W51 230888 E 02/23-19 79 36 14 16 67 W16 24 2 1 NW84 4997 W48 212234 E 02/23-20 79 36 14 14 72 W16 24 2 1 NW82 4813 W46 193581 E 02/23-21 79 36 14 14 72 W16 24 2 1 NW79 4815 W46 191530 E 02/23-22 79 36 14 13 75 W16 24 2 1 NW77 4816 W45 189479 E 02/23-23 67 27 7 12 77 W16 24 2 1 NW76 4818 W45 187428 E 02/24-00 67 27 7 12 77 W16 24 2 1 NW74 4826 W45 188610 E 02/24-01 67 27 7 11 79 W17 25 2 1 NW71 4834 W45 189791 E 02/24-02 67 27 7 11 76 W17 26 2 1 NW71 4843 W45 190973 E 02/24-03 67 27 7 11 76 W17 26 2 1 NW74 4816 W47 198781 E 02/24-04 67 27 7 12 73 W18 28 2 1 NW78 4790 NW49 206589 E 02/24-05 44 15 3 12 72 W18 28 2 1 NW84 4764 NW52 214397 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GERRY TUZON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120221.BEARL.01/BOU