FNUS73 KPAH 211511 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BASS PONDS...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 911 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE PRESCIPED BURN AREA AROUND 9 AM CST THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD IGNITION TIME. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE ABOVE 60 PERCENT CLOSE TO IGNITION TIME. THIS MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES AND DROP SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS DOWN 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS MAY KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING DOWN TO MINIMUMS IN THE MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL INITALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5300-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 TO 44 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 53 54 55 55 54 53 RH..............54 50 46 45 43 43 44 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW 20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 13 13 13 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.3 6.9 7.1 6.6 6.0 5.9 5.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.31 28 29 29 28 20 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38. RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO WEST 37 TO 39 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 47 44 43 41 40 RH..............50 58 62 62 70 73 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....5300 2300 700 1500 1000 900 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 9 W 38 W 39 W 38 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 5 5 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36 TO 37 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 47 57 62 RH..............76 63 47 39 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 SW 6G15 SW 10G25 SW 11G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1400 2500 5300 TRANSPORT WIND..W 37 W 37 W 37 W 36 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...ERIC PFEILSCHIFTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120221.BASSP.01/PAH