FNUS72 KILM 221257 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SANDY ISLAND NORTH END...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 757 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT SW TO W WINDS TO PICK UP BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. SW AROUND 10 MPH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN PICK UP THURSDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. BOTH A BROTAK WIND PROFILE AND BROTAK STACK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-4300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 16 TO 18 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-49219 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (46230-73485 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............30 20 24 17 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................60 67 70 69 RH..................63 48 42 45 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 8 SW 10 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 20 20 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...36 58 68 73 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2989-20930 MPH-FT). TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............28 31 38 45 47 45 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................66 63 60 59 58 57 RH..................52 61 70 75 80 85 20 FT WIND..........S 8 S 7 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...21 4 5 5 5 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH LATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3449-54049 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (64284-90850 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............43 42 38 33 34 40 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................56 59 68 71 72 72 RH..................87 81 64 60 59 59 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 20 20 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...4 10 23 54 79 89 $$ FORECASTER...III REQUESTED BY...TOM DOOLEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120222.SANDY.01/ILM