FNUS72 KJAX 221235 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP 30 HASTINGS...USFS OCALA NATL. FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 735 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE LAKE KERR AREA INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 50 PERCENT. LAVORI INDEX VALUES AFTER 0400 A.M. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 6-7 RANGE SUPPORTING VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD SMOKE BE PRESENT AT THAT TIME. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 78. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....41. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. LVORI...............MISSING. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........65 74 79 84 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 75 77 77 RH..............62 50 49 52 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 3300 3500 2600 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 14 SW 16 SW 15 LVORI...........M M M M CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 62. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....11. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........89 93 97 91 86 83 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 70 67 65 64 63 RH..............60 70 80 87 92 96 20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1200 900 600 500 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 SW 14 SW 13 SW 13 SW 13 SW 12 LVORI...........2 3 4 5 5 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 60 40 40 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 80. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-4100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....70. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. LVORI...............MISSING. $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...JARED NOBLES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120222.COMP3.01/JAX