FNUS74 KBMX 232145
FWSBMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RATTLESNAKE 223PM...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1610 CST ON FEBRUARY 23.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AS WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD HOLD AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE POSSIBILITY WILL STILL EXIST FOR RH
VALUES TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. INCONSISTENCIES STILL REMAIN AMONG MODEL DATA IN HOW
LONG THE RH VALUES WILL STAY BELOW 25 PERCENT...BUT INTERESTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCT ISSUANCES.

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....                     CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............71     69     67     65     64     62
RH..............67     72     77     84     84     87
20 FT WIND......S 16   S 16   SW 15  SW 14  SW 12  SW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).70     70     70     70     70     70
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   2300   2300   2000   1800   1800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 36   SW 36  SW 32  SW 26  SW 24  SW 22
DISPERSION......75     75     67     36     27     24

.FRIDAY...
TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............61     56     57     58     59     56
RH..............90     85     63     48     42     41
20 FT WIND......SW 10  W 12   W 12   NW 13  NW 13  NW 13
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     30     30     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....2200   2400   2700   3100   3900   4400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20  W 20   NW 22  NW 26  NW 30  NW 30
DISPERSION......26     26     29     65     82     87

$$
FORECASTER...GGOGGINS
REQUESTED BY...NOONAN PHIFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120223.RATTL.02/BMX