FNUS72 KILM 231216
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR BACK BAY...NCFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
716 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMTH AND INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
A RETURN OF MILD WEATHER IS SLATED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

HOWEVER...IT MAY TURN UNFAVORABLE...1-D...IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WIND MAX OF 41 MPH FROM THE
SW AT 1300 FT.

IN ADDITION...BROTAK WIND PROFILE TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-4400 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1300-1800 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH...INCREASING TO 24 TO 25
                    MPH LATE.
MAX ADI.............60.
MAX LVORI...........5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4485-45310 MPH-FT)...INCREASING
                    TO FAIR TO EXCELLENT (31049-87860 MPH-FT) IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............39     31     28     24
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................69     72     73     71
RH..................70     66     65     68
20 FT WIND..........SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     25     25     25
LVORI...............3      1      1      3
ADI.................54     59     55     36
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...79     88     65     31

$$
FORECASTER...HOEHLER
REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120223.BACKB.01/ILM