FNUS73 KPAH 231317 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR WHITE TRACT...USDA FOREST SERVICE, SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 717 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CST ON FEBRUARY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY...BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WHICH IS 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE TODAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STRONG TO EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA SOUTH ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARM UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................89 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW TEMP............51 55 59 61 64 65 66 65 63 RH..............89 77 69 65 50 48 47 46 48 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S SW SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 25 25 25 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 17 20 22 24 25 28 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38. RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32 TO 41 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 43 TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............59 53 49 46 42 39 RH..............53 57 58 63 65 70 20 FT WIND......W 10 W 10 W 11 W 11 W 13 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 30 30 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3400 3100 2800 2600 2700 3100 TRANSPORT WIND..W 32 W 37 W 40 W 43 W 45 NW 45 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120223.WHITE.01/PAH