FNUS74 KBMX 232314
FWSBMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOBE PILES 2...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
514 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON FEBRUARY 24.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AS WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH UNTIL SUNSET. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
HOLD AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL.

WITH WINDS STAYING UP DURING THE EVENING...PATCHY FOG WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE. RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 4 AM AND LAST
THROUGH 9 AM. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE AROUND DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE POSSIBILITY WILL STILL EXIST FOR RH
VALUES TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. INCONSISTENCIES STILL REMAIN AMONG MODEL DATA IN HOW
LONG THE RH VALUES WILL STAY BELOW 25 PERCENT...BUT INTERESTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCT ISSUANCES.

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....                     CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     70     67     65     64     64
RH..............68     73     84     90     93     93
20 FT WIND......S 14   SW 15  SW 15  SW 13  SW 12  SW 9
CHC OF PCPN (%).70     70     70     70     70     70
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   2400   2000   1500   1500   1500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 35  SW 36  SW 32  SW 26  SW 24  SW 23
DISPERSION......74     75     63     30     27     26

.FRIDAY...
TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............63     59     60     61     62     58
RH..............93     90     70     55     46     46
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 10  W 12   NW 14  NW 12  NW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     50     50     50     50
MIX HGT (FT)....1600   2300   2800   2900   2800   3300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22  W 21   W 22   NW 23  NW 22  NW 23
DISPERSION......24     28     29     54     50     58

$$
FORECASTER...GRANTHAM
REQUESTED BY...JOHN FRY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120224.HOBEP.02/BMX