FNUS73 KPAH 241524 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD UNIT 3B...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 924 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CST ON FEBRUARY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WITH THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BLUFFS...WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOCALLY 5 TO 10 MPH HIGHER THAN DEPICTED AT THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AIRPORT OBSERVATION LOCATION. ALSO...GIVEN THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WIND...WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT ERRATIC GIVEN ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN BELOW 15 MPH DURING THE EVENING...THE DRIER AIR THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BARELY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. ANY STRONG INVERSTION THAT SETS UP AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 7 AM CST...WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BETWEEN 600 AND 12OO FT AGL. SHOULD THERE BE SUFFICIENT HEAT FROM BURNING FUEL IN THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO LOCALLY BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT SET UP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DROP BELOW THE 1700 FOOT MINIMUMS FOR BURNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 47. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 20 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 38 TO 46 MPH DECREASING TO 35 TO 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 43 44 45 45 46 45 44 RH..............55 55 53 49 49 45 47 49 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 10 10 10 12 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.35 30 35 35 35 30 30 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.39 38 36 36 35 35 35 35 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 28. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 25 TO 26 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE SNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............41 37 35 33 32 30 RH..............55 64 69 72 72 75 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....6600 6000 4900 3500 2300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 35 NW 31 W 28 W 25 NW 25 NW 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48. RH..................MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............29 35 43 47 RH..............75 59 35 30 20 FT WIND......NW 6G10 NW 9G15 NW 7G10 W 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 2400 3900 4200 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 26 W 24 W 23 SW 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120224.OAKWO.01/PAH