FNUS73 KPAH 242131
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALEX DEMO BURN...MISSOURI DEPT CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 CST ON FEBRUARY 25.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE NOTE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SCHEDULED FORECAST REVISIONS BETWEEN
NOW AND THE ACTUAL TIME OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN ON SATURDAY. INFORMATION
PROVIDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE MAY NOT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL PRESCRIBED BURN. THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY NEED
BE RE-SUBMITTED SATURDAY MORNING TO RECEIVE THE LATEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS
LOCATION.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND MOVES THROUGH THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
EAST...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH.

OTHER THAN MIXING DUE TO THE WINDS DURING THE MORNING...THE BEST DRYING OF
FINE AND LONGER TERM FUELS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE SUN ANGLE
WORKS MOST EFFECTIVELY ON THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6100-6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO
                    18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............29  29  32  36  39  43  46  48  49  50  49  48
RH..............75  75  63  54  46  39  35  31  31  30  33  35
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  10  15  15  15  15  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.5 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   9   15  18  18  17  16  15  15  14  12  9
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   5

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...GARY GOGNAT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120225.ALEXD.01/PAH