FNUS73 KPAH 242027 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR COTHAM 3 RX...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 227 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FOR SATURDAY WINDS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK ...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND TURNING TO THE WEST AROUND THE NOON HOUR. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...THE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND ORIENTATION WILL KEEP THE SMOKE PLUME DOWNWIND OF THE BURN AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP DRY THE FINER FUELS OUT DURING THE MID DAY AND AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE SUN ANGLE IS OPTIMIZED ON THE SLOPES. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNSET (50-60 PERCENT) BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT) BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC PC PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............45 42 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 32 RH..............43 48 50 52 54 56 59 61 64 69 72 72 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.7 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.25 20 14 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 51. RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 14 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............31 32 34 38 41 44 46 48 49 50 49 48 RH..............75 72 64 52 46 39 35 33 31 31 34 39 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 2.1 3.6 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.6 10 16 21 22 20 18 18 17 16 14 10 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...KEITH P KELLEY FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120225.COTHA.01/PAH