FNUS73 KPAH 231536 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR THORNY MT...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 936 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON FEBRUARY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS TODAY...BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 70 TODAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE TODAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT RESULT IN RAINFALL FOR THE OZARK FOOTHILLS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A WARM UP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MAX 49. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............35 38 41 44 46 47 48 47 46 RH..............49 44 38 33 31 30 27 29 33 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W W SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.0 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW W W W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15 15 15 13 10 8 7 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800-3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 41 TO 45 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 40 38 36 35 34 RH..............41 50 54 63 67 69 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 3 S 4 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5400 4700 3700 2800 2200 1800 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 SW 12 S 21 S 30 S 38 S 44 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56. RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 39 TO 46 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 25 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............33 40 51 55 RH..............72 59 42 38 20 FT WIND......S 5G10 S 8G15 S 10G25 S 9G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 2700 3700 4200 TRANSPORT WIND..S 46 S 39 S 30 S 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BLANCHARD REQUESTED BY...PRESTON MABRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120225.THORN.01/PAH