FNUS75 KGJT 270609
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOAP CREEK PILES...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1109 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON FEBRUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FIRE
SITE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL COME TUESDAY AS MOIST WESTERLY FLOW SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT REMAINING BRISK ON TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH 1000...THEN
    BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    25 MPH BY 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200-2300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (98100 KNOT-FT) BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL BY
    1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 22 MPH
    BY 1300.

.TUESDAY...

20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    AROUND 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (116400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
    EXCELLENT (300000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200 FT AGL IN
    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...ROSS OXFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120227.SOAPC.01/GJT