FNUS73 KJKL 262217
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELTON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
517 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT LIMITED RETURN FLOW
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND RESULT IN HIGHER MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FORM SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING TO WESTERLY
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN
THE DAY OR EARLY ON MONDAY EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32 VALLEY...37 RIDGE.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 78 PERCENT VALLEY...67 PERCENT RIDGE.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 1 TO 4 MPH.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........1      1      0      1      7      12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............46     40     39     37     35     34
RH..............39     52     59     62     69     73
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 3    S 3    S 2    S 1    S 0
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
HUMIDITY............68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING WEST
                    6 TO 9 MPH AROUND 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 1700.
                    GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AROUND 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 9 MPH AROUND 1700.
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AROUND 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 9 MPH AROUND 1700.
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...5200 FT AGL
                    MAX.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    WEST AROUND 13 MPH AROUND 1300...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AROUND 1600.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
VENT RATE...........6000 KNOT-FT AT IGNITION...64000 KNOT-FT MAX.

TIME (EST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........19     22     26     32     33     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............38     42     50     56     59     59
RH..............73     75     59     44     40     40
20 FT WIND......S 3    SW 3   SW 6   W 8    W 6    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...PELTON
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OWENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120227.SHELT.01/JKL