FNUS73 KLSX 281510
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR VOGT GLADE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER
CRAWFORD AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THERE MAY
BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN IS
RECEIVED TONIGHT AND HOW IT AFFECTS 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 59.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST 2-3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH
                    2-4 MPH. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 WAS USED.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WIND 8 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AT IGNITION...1700 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (4540 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000...THEN 16-25 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2200...THEN >25 STRIKES UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0300...THEN NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST 4-5 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
                    ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST 4-5 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
                    OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........BREEZY. WEST WIND 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 38 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (33654 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...KANOFSKY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS WOODS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120228.VOGTG.01/LSX